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PredictocracyMarket Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making$
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Michael Abramowicz

Print publication date: 2008

Print ISBN-13: 9780300115994

Published to Yale Scholarship Online: October 2013

DOI: 10.12987/yale/9780300115994.001.0001

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Regulatory Bodies

Regulatory Bodies

(p.137) Chapter 5 Regulatory Bodies

Michael Abramowicz

Yale University Press

This chapter focuses on the possibility that prediction markets might make forecasts that could provide almost all of the information needed for some set of decisions. In some cases, prediction markets might be able to replace institutions and individuals assigned to research and make particular decisions. In particular, the chapter shows how prediction markets might perform decision-making tasks typically assigned to regulatory bodies such as legislatures, administrative agencies, and judges. The chapter discusses the venerable jurisprudential debate about the wisdom of competing approaches. It explains how the legal system can achieve the flexibility of standards and the certainty of rules by generating predictions that have some effect under a particular legal standard. It explains how both insurance and prediction markets can serve as the foundation of a predictive decision-making regime.

Keywords:   forecast, information, institutions, research, regulatory bodies, legislatures

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