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PredictocracyMarket Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making$
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Michael Abramowicz

Print publication date: 2008

Print ISBN-13: 9780300115994

Published to Yale Scholarship Online: October 2013

DOI: 10.12987/yale/9780300115994.001.0001

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(p.227) Chapter 8 Courts

Michael Abramowicz

Yale University Press

This chapter considers the speculative possibility that prediction markets might be used not merely to assist jurists but to perform their work. The chapter argues that it might seem at first that a prediction market may not be able to perform the task of adjudication because adjudication tends to be retrospective, whereas prediction is inherently a forward-looking task. It has been observed, however, that prediction markets can be used to aggregate preferences. Moreover, these preferences can concern relatively abstract issues such as the weight to give to different types of evidence in statutory interpretation, not simply ultimate policy reasoning. The chapter also considers a variety of other applications of prediction markets in the judicial context and suggests that market-based adjudication might be most useful for causes of action that are simply infeasible under existing procedural constraints.

Keywords:   jurists, adjudication, statutory interpretation, policy reasoning, procedural constraints

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